SportsFullCircle

Now that three weeks have passed in the 2009 NFL season, only seven undefeated teams remain, with at least one guaranteed to fall in week four as the (3-0) Saints take on the undefeated Jets.  But who will be the last undefeated team this year?

The last team to lose isn’t always the best one (see Titans, Tennessee 2008).  But the longer a team goes without losing, the much better off they are come playoff time.  Statistics have shown that only one out of every seven teams that starts out 0-2 will even make the playoffs, so a strong start is imperative to a successful season.

So which team will be the last remaining undefeated team?  Among the seven left, seven different divisions are represented - only the NFC West is devoid of an undefeated team - and no division has more than one.  The NFC boasts three - the Giants, Vikings, and Saints - while the AFC has one from each division - the Jets, Ravens, Colts, and Broncos.  With none in the same division, it will probably mean more teams will remain undefeated for a longer period of time than last year, rather than one team going as long as it can while others play catchup.

Let’s try and figure out who won’t go a very long time undefeated.  We start with the Broncos.  Say whatever you want about their miraculous victory over the Bengals, but ninety-nine times out of one hundred that ball is knocked down and the game is over.  They don’t deserve their undefeated record.  Even negating their credibility, their next three games are against Dallas (2-1), New England (2-1), and San Diego (2-1).  Good luck getting through those teams without losing once.  Even if the Broncos manage to get past the Cowboys, they have to deal with the Patriots, and then the Chargers.  They have the toughest three game stretch of the seven teams.

Another team I expect to fall soon will be the Vikings.  Like the Broncos, they needed a miraculous play to squeak out a win against the 49ers.  They play the Packers on Monday Night Football next week, and although they have a cupcake the following week against the Rams, they would play the Ravens the week after.  If they can get past the Packers they will most likely reach 5-0 unscathed, but a matchup against the formidable Ravens D doesn’t bode well for this team.

Let’s look at an interesting situation in this week’s matchup between the Jets and Saints.  Both of these teams have been impressive in their victories, and both have beaten credible teams.  But the game after is where I am concerned.  If the Jets were to beat the Saints, they would face the Dolphins and the Bills the following two weeks, which are favorable matchups for the Jets.  The Saints, on the other hand, play the Giants, a team that has seriously challenged once in the first three weeks.  For this reason I say the Saints will lose soon as well, either to the Jets or the Giants.  While the Saints are benefited by an early bye week, I don’t see them making it past five games without a loss.  If the Jets can beat the Saints, I think they will go to at least 6-0 if not better.  But no guarantees.

So this leaves us with the Colts, Giants, and Ravens.  The Giants have two easy games against the Chiefs and Raiders followed by their matchup with the Saints.  I think the Giants will handle the Saints with ease, which leaves them with a game against Arizona in week seven, a team that doesn’t look as impressive as the one that made the Super Bowl a season ago.  The Colts face only one team with a winning record - the 49ers - in their next six games, and have a bye week in the mix as well.  I think the Colts can easily make it to week 10 without a loss, barring an upset by a strong team with a bad record like the Titans.  The Ravens have to play New England, Minnesota, and Denver in the next four weeks, so I don’t see them getting through all four weeks without a loss.

So that leaves us with the Giants and Colts (my Super Bowl picks).  In the end, the Colts play in a weaker division, and because of this I think they can go longer without a loss.  But the members of the ‘72 Dolphins will be watching their every move as they wait to pop the champagne on another season without an undefeated team.